Modeling Freezing and Thawing of Subsurface Soil Layers for Global Climate Models

Freezing ground, including permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, is found in more than half of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The changes in soil freezing/thawing, or the subsurface thermal conditions, are a local phenomenon, but can have large impacts on climate and life in cold regions. Permafrost (soil is at or below 0°C for more than two consecutive years), occupying about 20% of the exposed NH land, is an essential component in the hydro-eco-climate system in the Arctic. It defines and controls biogeochemical activities, types of dominant vegetation, hydrological states and conditions (e.g., water holding and storage capacity, river and channel routing, limnology) in the regions. However, the influences of local subsurface hydrological-thermal regime changes are not confined to the high-latitude regions. Multiple pathways, which are physical, ecological and/or biogeochemical, can transfer the subsurface changes to other regions, and affect the regional to global climate with different consequences. The carbon and nitrogen cycles are closely controlled by the presence of permafrost, degradation of which may cause an irreversible change in the cycle and accelerate the emission of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane. Some types of vegetation may not survive when the underlying permafrost degrades, leading to migration of other vegetation types. Consequent changes in albedo and evapotranspiration functionality will shift the budget of energy and water on large scales. Precipitation in the high-latitude, continental summer owes strongly to water recycling capability. Water availability in summer, therefore, may be altered following such changes in the surface and subsurface hydrological conditions.